As West Asia diplomacy shifts, Syria’s Assad is no longer untouchable Premium

Saudi Arabia, which once backed anti-regime rebels and led the regional efforts to isolate Syria, is now leading Damascus back into the Arab fold as part of a major foreign policy realignment. Read the full analysis by subscribing to The Hindu.

In 2011, when civil strife broke out in Syria following street protests, Saudi Arabia led the Arab efforts to isolate the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and expel the country from the Arab League. When the Sunni-majority country ruled by the secular Arab Baath party slid into a civil war, Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies in the Gulf backed different rebel groups that were fighting Mr. Assad, who belonged to the minority Alawite community (an offshoot of Shiism). One of such groups was Ahrar al-Sham, which wanted to overthrow the Assad regime and build an Islamic state in Syria based on Sharia.

But those days seem like a distant past. Recent weeks saw Arab countries and Syria trying to rebuild their lost bonhomie. Jordan and Egypt recently sent their Foreign Ministers to Damascus for their first top level visits since the civil war broke out. Mr. Assad travelled to the UAE last month where he was greeted by Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the ruler of the seven Emirates. Earlier this week, Tunisia became the latest Arab country to normalise relations with Syria. On Tuesday, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan travelled to Damascus where he held talks with Mr. Assad. Saudi Arabia, which is hosting the next Arab League summit in May, is reportedly pushing for Syria’s re-entry into the grouping. Bashar al-Assad, who everybody wanted to go until a few years ago, is no longer untouchable.

These changes are part of the larger realignments that are under way in West Asia, say experts. On March 10, Saudi Arabia reached a deal with Iran to reestablish diplomatic relations, in secret talks mediated by China. The Saudis are also holding talks with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, to end the eight-year-long war in that country.

“The normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Syria shows that regional powers are reassessing their strategies after Assad retook control of most of Syria in recent years,” said Mohammed Soliman, director at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. “It also reflects Riyadh’s approach vis-à-vis Tehran, which includes the China-backed Saudi-Iran agreement, the evolving ties with Baghdad, and now the restoration of ties with Syria,” Mr. Soliman told  The Hindu.  

Iran and Saudi Arabia were at opposing sides in Syria’s civil war. While Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Turkey backed different rebel factions in Syria, Iran and Russia supported the Assad regime. Iran mobilised Shia militias, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, to fight alongside Mr. Assad’s forces, while Russia came to the regime’s help in September 2015. They collectively turned around the civil war, leading to Mr. Assad recapturing most of the territories lost to the rebels and jihadists, from Aleppo to Homs. At present, the regime directly controls most of the country except Idlib, a province in the northwest that’s ruled by jiahdist Tahrir al-Sham (an al-Qaeda-linked group), the Kurdish regions and some enclaves on the Turkish border.

Mr. Assad’s victory made most Arab countries rethink their strategy. The UAE made the first move when it reestablished formal ties with Damascus in late 2018. Mr. Assad has visited Abu Dhabi twice ever since. The February earthquake that killed thousands of people in Turkey and Syria turned out to be a diplomatic opportunity for Damascus and its Arab neighbours. Syria wanted help and its neighbours seemed ready to bring this old Arab brother in from the cold.

Jordan immediately held talks with the Assad regime, which was followed by others. Once Saudi Arabia, arguably the most powerful and influential Arab country, warmed up to normalising ties with Damascus, it gave a fresh momentum to diplomacy. Now, re-accommodating Mr. Assad fully into the Arab mainstream is a matter of time.