As the Russian army struggles in Ukraine, the West braces for what Putin might do next

Russia has a grim, well-established playbook for fighting its wars.

Every country has one, but Moscow is notoriously iron-fisted in the way it wages its military campaigns. Just ask the Georgians and the Chechens.

From the use of massed artillery to turn cities into dust to the indiscriminate bombing of hospitals and apartment blocks to terrorize civilians and break their will, Russia's military tactics have stayed roughly the same for decades, with the occasional modification for new technologies.

Western leaders and military experts who make it their business to study how Russia fights all agree on one thing — the war in Ukraine has not gone the way Moscow anticipated. And that raises the spectre of brutal escalation.

The question they're all asking themselves now is — what comes next?

That question formed an anxious, often unspoken subtext to the talk of sanctions and allied unity this week during Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's European tour.

Canada's top military commander and his western counterparts have been taking copious notes on the failures and limitations of the Russian Army's campaign in Ukraine — the first time they've seen their adversary fight a major war in decades.

To say Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre was startled by what he's seen would be an understatement — given the size of Russia's invading force, its heavy armour, artillery and airpower, and the reputation the Russians brought into the field.

"Yeah, very surprised," Eyre told CBC News in an exclusive interview this week.

"What we were seeing before the war was an over-estimation of Russia capabilities and willingness to fight, and perhaps an under-estimation of the resistance the Ukrainians forces would put up."

The apparent inability of the invading army's infantry, engineers, tanks, big guns and fighter jets to work together ("combined arms" in military jargon) was one of the biggest surprises, Eyre said.

Most people have seen by now the drone footage of tank columns caught in the open being blown away, the social media video of Ukrainian farmers capturing mobile guns. Stories of logistics trucks running out of fuel and ill-fed Russian soldiers tell western commanders a lot about the adversary they might have to fight.

Russia's problems include poor military logistics and lax equipment maintenance, said Eyre. He was quick to add that the valiant defence put up by Ukrainian troops — even when surrounded, as they are in Mariupol — has been the biggest factor frustrating the Russian advance.

"We knew the Ukrainians would fight, but boy are they ever. You can see their willingness to defend their homeland," he said. "On the Russian side, a lot of questions about what they are doing."