As political equations shift in Bihar and Maharashtra, BJP expands list of ‘vulnerable’ Lok Sabha seats

An internal assessment has revised the number of such seats from 144 to 160; party office-bearers to meet in Hyderabad on December 28 for more discussion on weak pockets; PM Modi likely to address workers in these seats

Changes in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) constituents and equations in Bihar and Maharashtra have compelled the BJP to increase its list of “vulnerable” seats in the Lok Sabha from 144 to 160 in the party’s internal assessment, with plans already in motion to pay extra attention to these seats in the run-up to the general elections of 2024.

Senior office-bearers of the party met during the recent session of Parliament for a review of the list of “vulnerable” Lok Sabha seats. They said the list should reflect the changed political equations since it was first drawn up in the middle of 2022, with an elaborate programme for Ministers in the Modi government to travel to at least three to five seats allotted to them to do organisational work and to enthuse the cadre.

In Bihar, the parting of ways between the BJP and the Janata Dal (U), and the seven-member Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) of the JD(U), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and the Left parties ranged against the BJP since has led to a rethink on seats which the party thinks it will have trouble winning in 2024. The number has been raised from four in the earlier list to 10 in the updated one. Seats like Nawada, Vaishali, Valmiki Nagar, Kishanganj, Katihar, Supaul, Munger, Jhanjharpur, Gaya and Purnea are in the list of vulnerable seats in Bihar.

In Maharashtra, the break-up of the BJP-Shiv Sena Mahayuthi or alliance and the split in the Shiv Sena between the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction and the Eknath Shinde-led Sena has led to much bitterness and the possibility of grudge matches seem high. A senior office-bearer of the BJP said that in seats like Mumbai South Central, which under the old Mahayuthi arrangement was with the Shiv Sena, and has Rahul Shewale as the MP, is particularly vulnerable. “There is so much bad blood over Rahul Shewale, who is with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s faction, that the Uddhav Thackeray faction may yet hand over that seat to the Congress, for Varsha Gaikwad,” said a source. “For Uddhav Thackeray, handing over Lok Sabha seats where the Congress-NCP could beat the NDA is no big deal, as he is more interested in keeping Assembly seats and local body polls,” said the source. Seats like Shirdi, Ratnagiri and Maval, largely Sena-held, may fall in this category.

On December 21, the national office-bearers of the BJP met in Patna for a two-day workshop with vistaraks or full-time party workers, who were dealing with 100 “vulnerable” Lok Sabha seats in States such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, Tripura, Nagaland, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. Those who attended this meeting for review and training included general secretary (organisation) B.L. Santhosh, joint general secretary (organisation) Shiv Prakash, general secretary Sunil Bansal, Bihar incharge Vinod Tawde, and co-incharge Harish Dwivedi.

A similar meeting is scheduled to be held in Hyderabad on December 28 for the the remaining 60 seats. Among those categorised as “vulnerable” seats, West Bengal has the largest with 24 seats, followed by Maharashtra with 11, Bihar 10, Uttar Pradesh 10, Assam five, Telangana five and Punjab three seats. Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat have one each, as do Tripura and Daman and Diu.

The programme will subsequently include Prime Minister Modi addressing workers in these seats in clusters of 40-45 seats .“With political equations likely to shift even more as 2024 nears, we expect that more seats could also be added to this list of vulnerable seats,” said a senior office-bearer in the BJP.