Are we in a recession? Don’t trust lipstick and underwear sales as a gauge

As experts warn of a near-term recession brought on by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, many are looking for clues that may not be the most reliable indicators.

The warning bells have been sounding for several months that a recession is imminent due mainly to U.S. President Donald Trump‘s trade war.

There are key indicators of when an economy like Canada’s has entered a recession including consistent declining growth, weakness in the labour market, as well as falling consumer and business confidence.

There are also overlooked symptoms that can help paint a picture of underlying economic weakness including consumers choosing cheaper options at the grocery store to rising demand for career upskilling.

Depending on who you ask, there are also some long-held theories dating back decades about what other economic indicators could be that a recession is imminent, from changes in skirt hemlines to lipstick and men’s underwear sales, and even rising cases of diaper rash.

But first: what actually is a recession?

Tariffs imposed on virtually all nations by the U.S. combined with counter-tariffs are creating pressure on governments and businesses to diversify trading partners and adapt supply chains to minimize the impacts.

Consumers are expected to bear the brunt of the trade war with the majority of economists and business experts predicting higher costs for goods and services, which will lead to an inflation spike.

Higher costs have a ripple effect on overall economic growth as companies pull back on investing in new projects and developments.