Another tie-up could have serious implications for crab fishery, seafood analyst warns

A seafood industry analyst says he doesn't see any immediate financial benefit for Newfoundland and Labrador's fishery by delaying another crab season — but says the ongoing dispute could actually pay off in the future. 

Crab harvesters in the province remain committed to not fishing under a pricing formula set at a minimum of $2.60 per pound. In a news release on Tuesday, the Fish, Food and Allied Workers union said its members cannot fish under that price formula, chosen by the province's price-setting panel. 

The crab season is set to begin in some areas on Saturday.

But as the situation remains in limbo, Boston seafood analyst John Sackton told CBC News a delay to this year's season will likely take away from both harvesters and processors in the province, while also inflating the fishery in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

"That price is going to shoot up, beyond what the market can take, and buyers are going to lock in product," Sackton told CBC Radio's The Broadcast Thursday.

"Then when they turn around and the Newfoundland product is being offered to them, they're going to say 'we don't need it,' and so that price is going to go down."

But there are some possible bright spots for the future and the ground work happening now could lead to success down the line, Sackton said.

"There's been a lot of turmoil in Newfoundland, but I think what's emerging in the crab industry is something that's actually going to move things forward," he said.

"Just the fact that there's a standoff right now over two formulas isn't terrible in my mind. I mean, I think the most important thing is that the province and the parties will agree that they have to have a price formula going forward in the future."

Sackton expects smooth sailing between harvesters and processors to take more than one season before both sides will reach a formula they can agree on. 

In his past experience, working on a formula for processors and harvesters in Alaska, he said it took three to four years of work before a positively received formula was reached that was "untouchable for 15 or 20 years."

He said the most important work to come will be addressing the level of suspicion felt by fish harvesters that's leading them to not trust the prices they receive from processors.

"I think that as the formula evolves over the next couple years, the proposals that the FFAW put forward have some of those elements. Like an audited price report, for example, those things can actually build trust," he said.

"You end up with all parties, the harvesters and the processors, working to get the best market advantage they can."