Airstrikes alone unlikely to result in regime change in Iran, expert warns: "It has never worked"

Washington — U.S. and Israeli airstrikes alone are unlikely to result in the ouster of the Iranian government, according to an expert in air campaigns, who said that the risks are growing for a more drawn-out war that could spread beyond the Middle East. Matt Gutman contributed to this report. In:

Washington — U.S. and Israeli airstrikes alone are unlikely to result in the ouster of the Iranian government, according to an expert in air campaigns, who said that the risks are growing for a more drawn-out war that could spread beyond the Middle East.

Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago who has studied air power for three decades, told CBS News 24/7 that history does not support the idea that bombing alone can unseat a regime and install a more friendly leader.

"The fact of the matter is, for over a century, states have been trying to topple regimes with air power alone and — I'm choosing my words carefully — it has never worked," Pape told CBS News 24/7 on Friday. "We are heading toward the predictable result of growing risk, growing escalation. And I'm sorry to say this could go on for quite some time."

Israeli airstrikes at the start of the war killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of other top government officials, but the country's military and senior clerics still control the levers of power. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has continued to launch retaliatory drone and missile attacks across the region, and a clerical body has been working to select the country's next supreme leader. 

Pape said the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes failed to "produce quick and decisive victory."