After St. Paul's, is there anything Trudeau can say or do to save his leadership?

At some point before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet decided to finally abandon his promise of electoral reform, he had an idea.

He would tour the country to promote and explain the ranked ballot, his preferred option for reform. He said he believed that with enough time and effort, he could convince people of the logic and wisdom of what he was proposing.

He was ultimately convinced that there were other issues more in need of his attention and time. But years later, it's possible to see that same impulse — that same belief in his ability to make the case — in the flurry of podcasts and interviews Trudeau has done in recent weeks. With his party staring at defeat in the next election, the prime minister has put himself out there — perhaps in the hope that, with enough time and effort, he can once again persuade enough voters that his party is still the right choice.

But in the wake of the Liberals' shock loss in a previously safe riding in Toronto, it's fair to ask if there's anything Trudeau could possibly say at this point that would get a hearing — or if too many Canadians have simply decided they're done listening to him.

Trudeau's stated theory about his current situation rests on a belief that voters will feel differently by the time the next election arrives, or that they'll change their minds when it comes time to make a real choice.

"Canadians are not in a decision mode right now," he told CBC's Power & Politics during an interview last week. "What you tell a pollster — if they ever manage to reach you — is very different from the choice Canadians end up making in an election campaign."

There's some logic to that argument, at least for an incumbent government. Every election is ultimately a choice, not merely a referendum ("a choice, not a referendum" was a motto the Liberals repeated to themselves when they sought re-election in 2019).

Sooner or later, the other parties contending for power have to explain what they would do differently. Attention and scrutiny will come to bear on the other candidates for prime minister. And even if the electorate is unhappy with the current government, it still has to settle on an alternative.

Trudeau might be particularly tempted to think that things could look different in October 2025. Inflation might continue to cool. Housing construction might pick up. The vibes might improve.

It's also worth noting that the phenomenon of unhappy voters does not seem to be a uniquely Canadian one. Public frustration was a topic of conversation among the heads of government who gathered in Europe for two summits earlier this month, Trudeau said.

According to Morning Consult, every G7 leader currently has the approval of less than half of their country's electorate. At 30 per cent, Trudeau actually ranks third among that group. Such widespread dissatisfaction suggests larger forces are at play — the lingering trauma of a pandemic, the strain and uncertainty caused by inflation, the corrosive influence of social media, a divisive war in the Middle East.

"People everywhere are facing a certain amount of frustration," Trudeau said on Power & Politics. "And I truly believe that, as we choose to step up on solving those challenges — to contrast with a political vision that so far consists from the Conservatives of just making people more angry and saying everything is broken — I know Canadians are pragmatic people who focus on solutions. And that's exactly what we're going to be doing."

While Liberal support has evaporated over the last year and a half, that drop does not seem to be a wholesale repudiation of the Liberal agenda.

When Abacus Data surveyed Canadians in May about what a government led by Pierre Poilievre should or shouldn't do, just 28 per cent of respondents said it should "definitely" or "probably" repeal the Liberal government's national childcare program. The same number said a Conservative government should repeal the national dental care program.