After Navalny, Russians abroad are at a pivotal moment in quest to remove Putin

The Russian presidential vote is over and, predictably, Vladimir Putin is about to begin yet another six years in power. But for his opponents abroad it is anything but business as usual.

The absence of credible opponents on the ballot, and the imprisonment of Russia's most consequential opposition figures, had already underlined Putin's refusal to tolerate any hint of dissent at home.

But the death of Alexei Navalny in prison just weeks ahead of the election was interpreted by Russians in the diaspora as a definitive sign that it is for them, now, to lead the movement against Putin from the outside.

"People recognize … is that [this] might be a turning point," said Garry Kasparov, a one-time world chess champion and longtime political activist who now lives in the U.S. He left Russia a decade ago after realizing that pro-democracy activism at home under Putin was increasingly futile and dangerous. 

As though to further underline the danger of opposing Putin even from afar, earlier this month Kasparov was added to a Russian list of "terrorists and extremists."

In the wake of Navalny's loss, and as Putin alarmingly puts the whole of Russia on a war footing, opposition figures abroad find themselves at a pivotal moment in their quest to unseat Putin. An ominous turn is seen by some in the opposition also as an opportunity; a catalyst to unify their ranks, and perhaps even spark more substantive support for their cause in Western capitals.

In an interview with CBC's The National in Washington ahead of the election, Kasparov said he's adamant that defeating Putin begins with Russian defeat in Ukraine. In the interim, he said, Russians abroad must become the architects of the post-Putin future. 

The question is whether the opposition abroad can, or even should, agree on a way forward. And in either case, who if anyone would lead the outsiders' charge. 

Navalny's network-in-exile, the Anti-Corruption Foundation, based in Lithuania, is still grieving but still intact. Yulia Navalnaya, Navalny's wife, is seen to be his natural successor, and has implied she would carry the mantle.

"She inherits not just his moral capital, but his team," said Ekatarina Schulmann, a Russian political scientist and professor who hosts a political talk show on YouTube from Germany. "If they will work together, which is most likely, then she may become a political force in her own right."

There is an array of disunited Russian opposition groups and individuals in the diaspora, including figures like Kasparov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a businessman and political activist once imprisoned by Putin, now in exile in London.

Navalny's organization is still best placed to rally the disparate groups, but it has a history of working independently.

"In my opinion, every moment that the opposition [does] not come together is a missed opportunity," said Maxim Katz, an independent Russian politician convicted in absentia of spreading "fake news" about the Russian military. 

Before he was charged, Katz left Russia with his family to Israel. From Tel Aviv, he hosts a YouTube channel aimed at Russians at home, in which, among other commentary on current events, he is critical of Russia's war in Ukraine.