A tale of two fighter jets — and what it means for Canada's defence and place in the world

Canadians will at long last have a better idea this year which fighter jet the Liberal government intends to buy for the country's air force.

The selection, however, will likely have more significance than simply a choice between two shining, new, expensive aircraft: the F-35 or the Gripen-E.

The decision to go with either an American or Swedish warplane is expected to say a lot about how the federal government sees Canada's place in the world — tied to a politically shaky United States or a Europe that is determined to step out of Washington's defence shadow.

Canada officially narrowed the field of bidders to two manufacturers on Dec. 1 by excluding Boeing, telling the U.S. aerospace giant that its bid in the $19-billion program to replace the country's CF-18s did not meet Ottawa's requirements.

The federal government is expected this year to either select a winner and negotiate a contract or help the two remaining companies — U.S.-based Lockheed Martin and Saab, with headquarters in Stockholm — improve their bids.

The decision this year "will be a fork-in-the-road moment," said an expert in defence and military affairs.

"If we buy the F-35, we would be more intricately embedding ourselves in an American military alliance, which we have been a part of for decades, but acquiring that particular aircraft would take that relationship up a couple of notches in a couple of different ways," said David Perry, a senior analyst and vice-president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute based in Ottawa.

If the Swedish aircraft is chosen, it would be the first time in more than half a century that Canadians have flown something other than an American-designed warplane.

And going to Europe to buy the next fighter jet would be stepping outside decades of alignment with the U.S., particularly when it comes to continental defence, Perry said, leading to repercussions for the bilateral relationship between Canada and the U.S.

"I don't think the United States government would be very enthused to see us operating a non-American aircraft for the first time since ... the Spitfire," he said with a chuckle.

Perry's assessment is close. The Royal Canadian Air Force flew the Spitfire, a British warplane, in the 1940s. The last non-American-designed warplane flown by Canada was the British de Havilland Vampire, a jet fighter that was retired in the late 1950s.

Aside from history coming down on the side of the Americans, another defence expert said modern alliances and rapidly evolving technology will weigh heavily in their favour.

"When I saw it narrowed down to the F-35 and the Gripen, I really felt that now the F-35 is more of a foregone conclusion," said Stéfanie von Hlatky, an associate professor and defence policy expert at Queen's University in Kingston, Ont.

Sweden is not among Canada's longtime defence partners, she added, and when you look at who the military might be partnered with in future multinational operations, "it will make it hard to choose something other than the F-35."