A new U.S. attack on Iran could risk large-scale retaliation

WASHINGTON — Although weakened and facing a domestic crisis, Iran’s regime still has substantial firepower that could inflict damage on American interests and allies in the region, disrupt the global economy and trigger a protracted conflict in response to a U.S. military attack, according to former U.S. officials, foreign diplomats and regional analysts

WASHINGTON — Although weakened and facing a domestic crisis, Iran’s regime still has substantial firepower that could inflict damage on American interests and allies in the region, disrupt the global economy and trigger a protracted conflict in response to a U.S. military attack, according to former U.S. officials, foreign diplomats and regional analysts.

The prospect of Iranian retaliation has factored into President Donald Trump’s deliberations over whether to order a military attack in Iran following strikes on its nuclear program in June, as well as discussions between the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East, according to current U.S. officials.

While Iran retaliated in June against Israel and a U.S. base in Qatar, it stopped short of more dramatic actions that could have caused casualties among American forces or destabilized Persian Gulf economies. Iran’s response to U.S. military action could play out very differently this time if Trump makes that decision, the former officials, diplomats and analysts said, particularly if Iranian leaders perceive a threat to their survival.

“What could be different this time is that they do try to regionalize this, as opposed to just going after Israel or going after U.S. bases,” said Joseph Votel, a retired four-star Army general who oversaw U.S. forces in the Middle East in Trump’s first term.

Votel, now a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute, a think tank, said one possibility is that Iran would try to target oil refineries in the Persian Gulf states in a bid “to drag everybody into this and turn this into a much more protracted conflict.”