A contest to frame the contest: Harris wants it to be on abortion; Trump wants it to be on immigration Premium

30 days before Election Day, Harris and Trump focus on abortion and immigration to sway voters in a tight race.

With exactly 30 days to go before Election Day in the United States, the two principal contestants for the post of the 47th President of the country are trying to frame the election on the single issue that favour them – for Democrat Kamala Harris, that is abortion rights, and for Republican Donald Trump, that is immigration. Simultaneously, both are trying to reposition themselves on the issue that put them on the defensive — Ms. Harris wants to appear tougher than she has been on the issue of illegal immigration and Mr. Trump wants to appear softer than he used to be on the question of abortion. This contest to frame the contest remains deadlocked as neither has been able to completely overwhelm the American public discourse. Opinion polls point to a photo-finish on November 5.

Both Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump would like to sharpen polarisation on one, and diffuse the debate on the other. Mr. Trump was President from 2017 to 2021; and Ms. Harris has been Vice President since 2021. Both of them have to disown part of their legacies, and amplify parts to present a curated image that they think suits them the most. Both sides misrepresent each other in pursuit of a favourable framing of the contest. In the chaotic mess of issues that confuse Americans – from inflation to global wars to fracking and climate — these are two issues that both parties hope can help them build clarity in their favour.

The abortion debate has been politically rewarding for the Democrats and costly for the Republicans in recent past. In the 2022 mid-term elections that followed the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that abortion was not a constitutionally guaranteed right, Democrats retained control of the Senate and performed above expectations in House of Representatives contests. This was attributed largely to an increased support among women for the Democrats. According to an American University poll this week, Ms. Harris is increasing her favourability lead over Mr. Trump among women voters, and 86% of women disapprove of any government intervention in reproductive choices. Mr. Trump who had earlier claimed credit for the overturning of the constitutional right to abortion by the SC, is now trying to mellow down. His running mate J.D. Vance, appearing in a debate with his opponent Tim Walz this week, admitted that the Republicans need to do “so much better... at earning the American people’s trust back on this issue, where they frankly just don’t trust us”. Mr. Vance said he no longer supported any nationwide regulation of abortion and shared with his opponent the anguish over the death of two women due to limited access to abortion. Mr. Trump’s wife Melania is reportedly in support of protecting abortion in her memoir slated for release on October 8. A recent New York Times-Siena College Poll found abortion rights are one question that Ms. Harris has a significant advantage over Mr. Trump. While Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance are trying to moderate their position on abortion, the Harris campaign accuse them of planning to enforce a nationwide ban or regulation of abortion. “Their Project 2025 is going to have a registry of pregnancies,” Mr. Walz said in the debate. Project 2025, an ultra conservative vision document, has been disowned by the Trump campaign and according to a CNN fact check, it does not propose such a registry.

The Trump campaign seeks to link nearly all problems of America to the influx of unauthorised people. Mr. Vance said: “…in communities all across this country, you’ve got schools that are overwhelmed, you’ve got hospitals that are overwhelmed, you’ve got housing that is totally unaffordable, because we’ve brought in millions of illegal immigrants to compete with Americans..” According to official estimates, around 10 million people entered the U.S. illegally during the Biden-Harris administration. The Trump campaign alleges this number is 22 million and tries to pin the entire blame on Ms. Harris, who they wrongly say was in charge of securing the border. Ms. Harris has been promising a strong border policy besides blaming Mr. Trump for blocking border management measures proposed by the Biden administration. Balancing her position on this is perhaps the most difficult act for Ms. Harris as a majority of Americans want regulated admission of new people, but a strong segment of Democrats oppose controls vehemently.

In reality, both abortion and immigration are questions of detail than principle for most Americans, multiple polls show. Polls show that an overwhelming majority of Americans support some sort of access and some sort of restrictions with regard to both abortion and immigration. Public views on both these issues are spread over a wide spectrum and the disagreements are essentially about details. For instance, until what stage of pregnancy should abortion be legal or how to manage the admission of new entrants into the U.S., and how many of them should be allowed. Erasing all nuances from the positions, of self and the opponent, appears to be the strategy of both campaigns to gain political mileage.