4 things we know — and 4 we don't — about Russia's armed rebellion and its fallout
CBC
Two days after an armed rebellion in Russia stopped suddenly on the road to Moscow, observers are watching closely to see how the deal struck between the Kremlin and the mercenary chief who led the revolt plays out.
An ongoing feud between Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russia's military leadership led to a mutiny that saw the former's mercenaries leave Ukraine to seize a military headquarters in a southern Russian city. They then rolled for hundreds of kilometres toward Moscow, before turning around Saturday.
Western leaders are taking a wait-and-see approach to the mysterious deal struck between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying speculation about an "internal issue for Russia" would be "extremely counterproductive."
The short-lived insurrection could have major repercussions for Russian President Vladimir Putin's grip on power; for the Wagner Group, which has been a key combatant in Ukraine and Africa; and for the front lines in Ukraine. But foreign governments, both friendly and hostile to Russia, have been left groping for answers about what has happened behind the scenes and what could come next.
Here are four things we know — and four things we don't — about Russia's armed rebellion, the biggest challenge to Putin since he took power at the turn of the century.
1) The Kremlin said the deal would see Prigozhin move to Belarus and receive amnesty, along with his soldiers.
Officials said the deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close Putin ally, to de-escalate the situation and avoid bloodshed.
Prigozhin, 62, spoke in an audio message Monday, but the former Putin ally and ex-convict gave no indication of where he was. He said Lukashenko had offered to let Wagner operate under a legal framework, but did not elaborate.
In a statement to the nation Monday, Putin said he would honour his promise to allow Wagner fighters to relocate to Belarus if they wanted, or to sign a contract with the Defence Ministry or simply return to their families. Prigozhin said most of his fighters refused to come under the Defence Ministry's command.
2) This was not a bloodless standoff.
Russian media reported that several military helicopters and a communications plane were shot down by Wagner forces, killing at least 15. Prigozhin expressed regret for downing the aircraft but said they were bombing his convoys.
He also claims the trigger for the rebellion was an attack on his men.
3) Putin and Russia appear less stable, experts say.
Retired U.S. army lieutenant-general Ben Hodges told CBC News Network on Monday that the rebellion revealed the "structural weakness" of Putin's Russia, a view echoed by other observers including the president of neighbouring Moldova and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
