2 elections in 2025 could be tricky for party organizers in northeastern Ontario

This could be a double election year for voters in northeastern Ontario, with a federal vote set for sometime in 2025 and wide speculation that a provincial election will be called about a year ahead of schedule. 

"It seems the chances are approaching 100 per cent," Eric Grenier, the polling analyst behind Thewrit.ca, said of the prospective provincial election.

One of the main driving forces behind that is a long-standing pattern where Ontario voters tend to not want the same party in power provincially and federally. 

"It is pretty solid. It's more or less eight out of 10 times," said Grenier. 

"So it is an actual historical kind of fact that there's a tendency for Ontarians to split their ticket."

And with federal opposition leaders, as well as dozens of Liberal MPs, calling for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down, it is increasingly possible that a federal campaign could come early in the year, around the same time a provincial vote is expected.

"They're never going to happen at the same time," said Fred Slade, a long-time Conservative organizer in Sudbury. 

"I can't imagine that anyways."

Slade, who ran twice for the Tories federally and is the current provincial riding association president for Nickel Belt, says with both blue parties well ahead in the polls, this is a golden opportunity for conservatives in the north, who often find themselves in third behind the Liberals and NDP. 

"Timing is everything in politics," he said. 

"I've seen polling that says northern Ontario is going very well."

The polling is not looking good for the federal Liberals, who are hoping to hold onto to their four seats in the northeast.

Janet Gasparini, the chair of the federal Liberal riding association in Sudbury, says she's seen provincial and municipal elections held very close together in the past. 

"And whoever comes second seems to have a lot more trouble getting the vote out," she said.