World population could peak at 10.3B by 2080s: UN

The report — released on World Population Day — says the global population is then expected to decline to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.

The world’s population is expected to grow by more than 2 billion people in the next decades and peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion, a new report by the United Nations said Thursday.

The report — released on World Population Day — says the global population is then expected to decline to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.

According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report, the earlier-than-anticipated population peak is due to several factors, including lower fertility levels in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China, whose population is projected to drop dramatically from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.

Globally, women are having an average of one fewer child than they did in 1990, the report said, and in more than half of all countries and territories, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1. That’s the level needed for a country’s population to maintain its size without migration.

Nearly 20% of the world — including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain — have “ultra-low” fertility, with women having fewer than 1.4 live births, said the report by the U.N. Population Division.

“The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign,” U.N. Undersecretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Li Junhua said. “This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption.”

Li stressed, however, that even with slower population growth, people will still need to individually reduce the impact of their activities to preserve the environment.

According to the report, in 2024 population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories, including China, Germany, Japan and Russia. In this group, the total population is projected to decline by 14% over then next 30 years.