Will the U.S. operation in Venezuela hit Canada’s oil industry? What we know
Global News
Experts say that while Venezuelan oil is similar to crude produced in Canada, it will take some time before the South American country's industry could compete.
While concerns are being raised about how the U.S. ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro could impact Canada’s oil markets, industry experts say the effect won’t be immediate.
U.S. President Donald Trump has signalled interest in transforming Venezuela’s oil sector, but on Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. won’t govern the South American country and will continue its “oil quarantine,” bringing questions about what’s next for the sector.
“In terms of coming back permanently, I see that will be extremely difficult,” said Luis Virla, who used to work for Venezuela’s petrochemical industry. “It will take many years and a lot of money to bring back the energy infrastructure and energy sector to the way it was, even in the ’90s.”
Despite the work needed to bring Venezuela’s sector up to speed, news of the U.S. operation in Venezuela weighed on Canadian energy stocks Monday.
Cenovus Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. were each down about five per cent and Suncor Energy Inc. dropped 1.4 per cent. Enbridge Inc., which operates a vast cross-border oil pipeline network that it plans to expand, and South Bow Corp., whose Keystone system ships crude to the U.S., each fell around three per cent.
Venezuela produced about 1.1 million barrels of oil per day in November 2025 and exported 950,000 barrels, but U.S. measures, including its blockade, knocked shipments down to approximately 500,000 barrels daily in December, according to preliminary figures based on ship movements.
Shaz Merwat, energy policy lead at RBC Thought Leadership, said in an interview Monday that Canadian oil should not have difficulty “finding a home” in the U.S., noting that about four million to 4.2 million barrels a day are exported to the U.S. by pipelines.
The majority of that is sent to the U.S. Midwest — approximately 2.8 million to 2.9 million barrels per day.
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Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is warning the federal government that the possible end of American sanctions on Venezuelan oil could displace Canadian exports to the U.S.
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Experts say that while Venezuelan oil is similar to crude produced in Canada, it will take some time before the South American country's industry could compete.
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