Will Afghanistan Become a Terrorism Safe Haven Once Again?

Not likely, at least in the short term, intelligence officials assess. But stopping terrorism groups over the long term could be more difficult.

WASHINGTON — The Sept. 11 attacks led American troops into Afghanistan in 2001 for what became a two-decade war. Now President Biden’s decision to withdraw military forces has prompted a central question: Will the threat of terrorism against America re-emerge from Afghanistan? The answer is no, at least not right away. But over the longer term, the question is far more difficult to answer. The United States could find itself pulled back into Afghanistan much as it was in Iraq, some current and former officials warned. Intelligence officials have offered the Biden administration an overall grim portrait of the future of Afghanistan itself, predicting that the Taliban will make battlefield gains, Afghan government forces will struggle to hold territory and a peace deal between them is unlikely. The broad outlines of that assessment were made public in an intelligence report released on Tuesday.