Will a ‘Trump Bump’ Help the Art Market’s Biggest Week?

After the U.S. election, auctioneers are looking to woo reluctant bidders back. Watch these 6 bellwether artworks to see how the market performs.

Will the art market go bananas again, like it did before the pandemic, now that Donald J. Trump has been elected to the White House on promises to cut taxes? Speculative investments like cryptocurrencies have risen in anticipation of a new Republican administration’s anti-regulatory agenda, and the auction world hopes that it can ride an economic boom to recovery after nearly two years of declining sales.

The November auction season that starts this week in New York will test the willingness of the ultrarich to spend a pile on artworks. They will compete to own more than 1,600 lots that are estimated to raise at least $1.1 billion. That includes a $1 million banana. The expected total is down more than a third from last November, with 16 percent fewer works headed to the auction block.

On the plus side, some experts point to the fact that interest rates have dipped, making financing easier for collectors, and many pieces are priced to sell, with lower estimates to entice reluctant bidders, “increasing the odds that the auctions will perform well,” said Doug Woodham, a New York-based art adviser and former Christie’s executive.

But art advisers said the fall offerings don’t have the trophy quality of previous seasons. Beyond the banana — a head-turning installation by Maurizio Cattelan named “The Comedian” — there is an exceptional painting by René Magritte expected to fetch at least $95 million. But works by other big-name artists like Pablo Picasso, Jeff Koons and Alberto Giacometti have multimillion-dollar estimates that are still far below the $100 million-plus consignments seen in 2022, the last boom year.

“A lot of discretionary consignors were reluctant to sell in November — they wanted to wait until after the election turmoil, or sell before,” Woodham said. “Sales are thinner as a result, with more works of uneven quality.”