Why Trump can't afford to brush off the Iran war's economic impact

U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to downplay the effect of the Iran war on the domestic economy even as American drivers are already feeling the impact on their wallets every time they fill up their cars and trucks. 

During a news conference in Florida Monday evening, Trump implicitly acknowledged the spiking prices of crude oil on world markets and the rising cost of gas at pumps in the U.S. by dismissing them as a short-term spin-off of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against the Iranian regime. 

"In the long run, oil supplies will be dramatically more secure without the threat of Iranian ships, drones, missiles, nuclear menace or anything," Trump said.

"We're putting an end to all of this threat once and for all, and the result will be lower oil prices, oil and gas prices for American families."  

Trump's promise that the war will ultimately bring lower energy prices is a sign of how important the cost of living is in U.S. politics right now, and suggests that the president is aware of the potential impact a long-term increase in such costs could have on public opinion.

Dan Cassino, a polling expert and a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University in New Jersey, says for U.S. voters who drive, a jump in the price of gas at the pumps is visible evidence of the rising cost of living.

"Gas prices are important because they are so visceral. They are immediately experienced by almost all Americans," Cassino told CBC News.

The national average price of a gallon of gas at the pumps hit $3.48 US on Monday, up 48 cents from the previous Monday, according to automotive and travel firm AAA. 

That's an even sharper spike than the biggest weekly increase triggered by Russia's war against Ukraine, when the average price jumped 45 cents US a gallon in March 2022.   

Cassino says the political damage for Trump and his Republican Party will depend on how long prices stay high and how much the broader U.S. economy is affected as the year progresses.

Midterm elections happen in November and if the Republicans lose control of Congress, Trump will be handcuffed in pursuing his agenda for the final two years of his term. 

"Democrats are salivating at the thought of being able to say that 'President Trump increased your gas prices to fight this war in Iran,' " Cassino said. 

If the war does not end quickly, the economic impact is likely to be felt well beyond the gas pumps. Rising transportation costs could affect the price of everything from family vacations to putting food on the table. 

The countries surrounding the Persian Gulf also provide much of the global supply of certain fertilizers, so any lengthy disruption in shipments as a result of the war could disrupt farming and push up food prices worldwide, the New York Times reported.