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Why the oil market's 'gone berserk' and where our bumpy energy transition goes from here

Why the oil market's 'gone berserk' and where our bumpy energy transition goes from here

CBC
Friday, March 11, 2022 03:55:20 AM UTC

What looked like a run-of-the-mill partisan dustup among American politicians this week might someday, with the benefit of hindsight, seem like a snapshot from a turning point in history.

Members of Congress gathered for an energy-committee hearing and the Democrats who organized it stuck to the scheduled topic: talking about electric vehicles. The Republican participants fumed about what a pointless exercise this was, especially now, amid tension with Russia, when the committee should be talking about a more immediate energy crisis: sky-high gas prices.

"Eastern Europe is on fire. A tyrant is raging through Ukraine," Ohio Republican Bill Johnson said, calling for more oil production. 

"It is absurd to me that we're spending our time today talking about electric vehicles rather than how we use America's [oil] resources to hold him at bay and to address skyrocketing inflation here at home."  

He went on to question the entire push for electric cars now, when China controls so many of the critical minerals that run their batteries, and said it would leave the U.S. vulnerable to an even bigger adversary.

WATCH | High gas prices could have ripple effect on Canada's economy:

In short the Republican position at the hearing was: drill, baby, drill.

At the same time, Americans are searching Google for electric vehicles at a higher rate than ever, twice as frequently as last year, as people seek refuge from punishing fuel prices. 

Crises have a way of revealing historical inflection points. 

And this historical moment involves energy and the global race to curb planet-warming emissions — it's about what forms we'll use, where we'll buy them and how fast we'll transition to clean tech.

The Democratic committee chair at the hearing countered that this crisis with Russia is a perfect time to be talking about diversifying energy sources, and shift faster to cleaner, renewable fuels.

"We need to double down on alternatives," said New Jersey's Frank Pallone. "Our reliance on fossil fuels makes us weaker — subject to the whims of dictators."

One thing to note is fossil fuels will be around for quite a while. There are different scenarios out there but most projections show oil consumption growing for a few years, peaking, then plateauing or dropping slightly.

Even in a scenario where we achieve net-zero carbon emissions, the International Energy Agency says the world would still use about one-quarter of present oil levels in 2050.

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