Why It’s So Hard for China to Fix Its Ailing Economy
The New York Times
A real estate collapse has made consumers cautious and businesses wary, as China confronts a crisis unlike any other since it opened its economy to the world.
In 2004, as China’s economy was emerging as a global force, a group of researchers started conducting nationwide surveys asking Chinese people if they were better off financially than they were five years earlier.
The percentage who felt wealthier climbed when surveyed five years later and again in 2014, when it reached a high of 77 percent.
Last year, when respondents were asked the same question, that figure dropped to 39 percent.
The results of that survey, titled “Getting Ahead in Today’s China: From Optimism to Pessimism,” speak to a new reality. China’s economy is confronting a crisis unlike any it has experienced since it opened its economy to the world more than four decades ago. The post-Covid rebound that was supposed to bring the economy roaring back to life was more like a whimper.
A few years ago, Beijing resolved to wean its economy from its dependence on an overheated real estate market, a sector that had underpinned the savings of families as well as China’s banking sector and local government finances. Now, the property sector is in crisis. Developers collapsed, leaving behind huge debts, a trail of failed investments, unsold apartments and lost jobs.
Chinese consumers, already prone to saving heavily, have become even more frugal. Businesses that endured the crippling impact of draconian Covid measures have cut salaries and scaled back hiring. Millions of college graduates joining the job market are facing long odds and poor prospects. And China’s population has shrunk two years in a row. In a country where the majority of people had only known the economy to grow rapidly and living conditions to improve, confidence is eroding.
