Why 2024 could be the ‘make-or-break’ year for democracy | Explained Premium

The Hindu examines key battles in the 2024 electoral calendar and explains why they are considered a crucial global test for democracy.

The story so far: A month into the new year and three countries in India’s immediate and extended neighbourhood — Bangladesh, Bhutan and Taiwan — have wrapped up their national elections, while Pakistan went to the polls earlier this week on February 8, setting the stage for a crucial year for global politics. Around 60 countries, home to almost half the world’s population, will hold presidential, parliamentary and local elections in 2024, putting the state of democracy under scrutiny against a backdrop of rising military conflicts, shifting alliances and economic uncertainties.

Apart from India, where the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is vying for a third consecutive term, the results in several other countries could have implications for the global economy, trade, and diplomacy. The electoral roster includes seven of the world’s most populous nations — India, the United States, Russia, Mexico, Pakistan, and Indonesia — along with two of the smallest countries, Palau and Tuvalu.

The spotlight will be on the U.S and Taiwan, where election outcomes carry the potential to trigger significant shifts in the world order. In the U.S., President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have framed the contest as a battle for the “future of democracy.” In Taiwan, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party has emerged victorious in the January 13 elections held under intense pressure from China, which considers the island a part of its territory. Lai Ching-te’s commitment to defend the island from “intimidation” from China has raised concerns about a possible military response, especially involving the U.S., which provides Taiwan with military hardware and technology under a security pact.

Russia’s presidential election in March is a foregone conclusion. President Vladimir Putin is certain to retain power until 2030 in the absence of a formidable challenge. Similar is the case with Bangladesh where Sheikh Hasina has secured her fourth straight term on the back of an election marred by an Opposition boycott. Traditional parties within the European Union (EU) will face a significant test against the rise of the far-right.

Meanwhile, South Africa will hold legislative elections between May and August. The African National Congress (ANC), which has been a dominant force since 1994, is grappling with economic crises, marked by an unemployment rate exceeding 30%.

The first round in January has revealed that democracy is going to be challenged as leaders attempt to tighten their grip, retain control and stifle oppositionvoices. The U.S.-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems outlines that, “… with 44% of the world now governed by electoral autocracies, the story of democracy’s prospects this year cannot only be told by the record number of ballots that will be cast. Far more telling for the global democratic trajectory in 2024 will be how countries holding elections navigate well-documented trends of rising autocracy and democratic recession.”

The rising risk of disinformation and social media misuse is an added challenge. “Although disinformation has long been part of dictatorships’ propaganda machines, autocrats appear to have become more blatant in ‘spinning’ false narratives in attempts to secure their hold on power. Anti-pluralists and aspiring autocrats in democracies such as the United States, Brazil, Germany, and Sweden are also increasingly spreading ‘fake news’. Targeted campaigns by regimes such as Russia, China, and Iran are adding further stress to democracies,” Sweden-based Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) says in a paper.