Where can you fly right now? Covid zero rethink spurs Asian travel
Gulf Times
With some countries in Asia starting to frame Covid-19 as a disease that needs to be managed rather than stamped out, there’s hope 2021 may not be the total travel write-off feared a few months ago.
With some countries in Asia starting to frame Covid-19 as a disease that needs to be managed rather than stamped out, there’s hope 2021 may not be the total travel write-off feared a few months ago. Speaking in parliament earlier this week, Singapore Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said that while the coronavirus is unlikely to go away any time soon, rising vaccination rates and improving treatments mean it can be thought of “more like influenza.” Similarly, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has promised a “new deal” that would shift the country’s strategy from suppressing the coronavirus to managing it. Thailand, meanwhile, has reopened the tropical island of Phuket to holidaymakers, so long as they’re vaccinated, and on Tuesday, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam, mulling the start of a long-anticipated travel bubble with Singapore, indicated both sides should require inoculation as a precondition for participating. And India has increased domestic flight capacity to 65% from 50% as its recent wave of infections ebbs. Such moves are buoying expectations about freer travel toward the end of the year. For now, Asia can only look on in envy as people crowd tourist hotspots in Europe and New York gets back to business. But there’s hope that by Christmas, borders can start to reopen. “We’re seeing an acknowledgement, including in countries where there have been a lot of strict restrictions, that this is a virus that doesn’t fully disappear and instead is one we live with and manage,” said David Mann, chief Asia economist at Mastercard Economics Institute. “Restrictions will be on a loosening trend if you take a six- to 12-month view, especially in places where they’re making progress on vaccinations.” Green shoots are beginning to show in airline seat capacity. After flatlining for more than 12 months, positive signs have started to emerge this month, according to flight-tracking firm OAG. Forward projections for August and September are more robust. Globally, the picture is brightening. Aviation capacity climbed more than 1 percentage point over the past week, and is around 66% of 2019 levels, according to Bloomberg’s weekly flight tracker, which uses OAG data to monitor the pulse of the comeback. China and Russia have both surpassed 2019 capacity levels, though like in the US, the strength comes from their large domestic markets, while overseas travel remains limited. Europe continues to make swift gains after trailing most other regions for the bulk of the pandemic. People can now move relatively freely within the European Union, facilitated by an app that tracks Covid status, as vaccine rollouts gather momentum across the bloc’s 27 member states. The UK’s rapid inoculation programme could finally start to pay off, after the delta virus thwarted a quicker return to the skies. The government plans to eliminate a self-quarantine requirement on vaccinated arrivals from medium-risk countries. London Heathrow airport reopened a second runway and will resume normal operations in a terminal used by Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd and Delta Air Lines Inc. The US, one of the drivers of recent global gains, has seen progress stall as airlines continue to battle capacity constraints. Delays and cancellations have hit Southwest Airlines Co and American Airlines Group Inc, among others, as they try to keep up with rising demand. Flight-tracking firm Cirium is finding limited progress toward restoring connections between key cities within Asia, as well as with major external hubs. Data for June show the number of flights between Singapore and Bangkok have doubled since January, although they’re still well below pre-Covid levels. Another route seeing significant pick-up is Hong Kong-London, with bidirectional travel over a seven-day period averaging 155 flights in June, up from 39 in January. (From July 1, however, Hong Kong banned all flights from the UK to curb the spread of the delta variant.) “We believe the pent-up demand in Asia Pacific, exacerbated by extended lockdowns, will follow a similar trajectory in both business and leisure travel as the region cautiously re-opens its borders,” Mastercard’s Mann said. Others aren’t so sure. In May, international traffic in the Asia-Pacific region stood at just 4.3% of the level it was two years earlier, before Covid hit, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. And there have already been setbacks to even modest reopening plans.More Related News