When Will China Beat US To Become No 1 Economy? Maybe Never

In Beijing, where they've just been celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, leaders are doing their best to present the baton-change as imminent and inevitable.

When will China overtake the U.S. to become the world's biggest economy? Few questions are more consequential, whether it's for executives wondering where long-term profits will come from, investors weighing the dollar's status as global reserve currency, or generals strategizing over geopolitical flashpoints. In Beijing, where they've just been celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, leaders are doing their best to present the baton-change as imminent and inevitable. "The Chinese nation," President Xi Jinping said last week, "is marching towards a great rejuvenation at an unstoppable pace." Early in the Covid-19 crisis, when China managed to control infections and maintain growth even as the U.S. suffered hundreds of thousands of deaths and a crunching recession, many were inclined to agree. More recently, an unexpectedly fast U.S. recovery has illustrated just how much uncertainty remains around the timing of the transition - and even whether it will happen at all.