What you need to know for the Jays' final playoff push

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Less than two weeks ago, the Toronto Blue Jays were the hottest team in baseball. After beating Minnesota on Sept. 19, they'd won 18 of 22 games — a hot streak that propelled the Jays from also-rans to tied with division rivals Boston and New York in the race for the two American League wild-card spots. Led by 22-year-old MVP contender Vladimir Guerrero Jr., MVP-calibre second baseman Marcus Semien and Cy Young candidate Robbie Ray, Toronto's results were finally matching the underlying metrics that suggested they were among the best teams in baseball. The Jays had about a 2-in-3 chance of making the playoffs and all the makings of a trendy World Series pick.

Now, heading into their final three games of the regular season, Toronto's playoff odds are down to about 1 in 7. Since that Sept. 19 peak, the Jays have split a series vs. the lowly Twins and dropped two of three to both AL East-winning Tampa Bay and the Yankees. In their rubber match last night, the Yanks tagged Ray for four of their five homers (including three in one devastating inning) en route to a 6-2 gut-punch that gave them a two-game lead in the wild-card chase and put them three games up on the Jays. New York has all but secured one of the wild cards — its odds of doing so are now over 96 per cent.

That leaves one AL wild-card ticket realistically up for grabs — with three teams fighting for it. The spot is currently shared by slumping Boston, which has dropped five of six and just lost a series to the awful Baltimore Orioles, and Seattle, which has the run differential (minus-48) of a sub-.500 team but is now 89-70 after winning 10 of its last 11. Toronto trails the Mariners and Red Sox by one game.

A few more things to know heading into the decisive weekend of the season:

Boston is favoured to win the second wild card. The Red Sox have about a 60 per cent chance of taking it, according to various playoff-odds models. Seattle's odds are about 30 per cent, and Toronto's about 14 per cent. Every other team in the American League is eliminated.

Toronto has the easiest schedule. The Jays' final three games are at home vs. Baltimore, a laughingstock of a team that has the worst record in the American League (52-107) and the worst run-differential (minus-278) in all of baseball by a whopping 48 runs. Toronto is 11-5 against the Orioles this year and outscored them 125-75 in those games. The last time they met, three weeks ago, the Jays dropped 44 runs on their fellow birds in two days alone. Seattle's final series is at home vs. the Angels (75-84), who have said presumptive AL MVP Shohei Ohtani won't pitch again this season (though the Japanese Babe Ruth will continue to hit). Boston visits lowly Washington (65-94), which is playing out the string in the NL East. So the Red Sox and Mariners aren't facing the toughest opponents either, and they have that one-game cushion over the Jays. Toronto will probably have to sweep the Orioles to have a shot, starting tonight at 7:07 p.m. ET with so-so Steven Matz on the mound. Impressive rookie Alek Manoah is slated to start Saturday at 3:07 p.m. ET, with 2020 Cy Young finalist Hyun Jin Ryu in line for the season finale Sunday at 3:07 p.m. ET.