What will the Canada-U.K. relationship look like under a Labour government?

The Canada-U.K. relationship, while typically strong, has faced some bumps in the road this year and analysts say those tensions may continue for the short term.

The election of a new Labour government in Thursday’s British elections may come with the promise of change in the United Kingdom, but the immediate impact on relations with Canada is less clear.

The Canada-U.K. relationship, while typically strong, has faced some bumps in the road this year. The newly defeated Conservative government unilaterally paused trade negotiations with Ottawa in January, and more recently put new pressure on NATO allies — including Canada — to further increase their defence spending.

In the short term, those tensions may continue, analysts say, although common priorities between Labour and the Liberals could lead to a softening down the road.

“It’s probably safe to assume that we are not going to see much onward movement in resolving those issues until issues surrounding the election are behind us,” said Ann Fitz-Gerald, director of the Balsillie School of International Affairs and a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University.

Canada regularly touts its strong ties with the U.K., particularly as a Commonwealth member and strong trading partner. Last year, bilateral trade was valued at $45 billion, according to the Canadian government, making Britain Canada’s fourth-largest single-country trading partner.

The two countries have been negotiating a new trade deal over the past two years since Britain fully left the European Union. That deal would replace the current, pre-Brexit Canada-United Kingdom Trade Continuity Agreement that has largely allowed goods to keep flowing.

One recent exception is British cheese. Tariff-free cheese exports from Britain stopped at the end of 2023 after a time-limited side agreement expired, leaving British producers facing higher duties of 245 per cent.

Hopes of resolving that issue and others were dashed in January, when the British government announced it was hitting the brakes on trade talks, claiming “progress is not being made.”