What will Canada's second Trudeau era leave behind?

In an interview in December 2022, Justin Trudeau allowed himself to talk about legacy.

He has typically avoided entertaining such stuff. But sitting in his West Block office a little more than two years ago, he spoke of "unfinished business" and a desire to "lock in what Canada is doing as an open, progressive, confident democracy." And when it was pointed out to him that it sounded like he was talking about a legacy, he didn't entirely run away from the idea.

"I don't expect that when the dust settles and I'm a paragraph in some history book, 30 years from now, people are going to be able to point [to the equivalent of] multiculturalism or the [Charter of Rights and Freedoms] as the big legacies or the big consequence," he told me.

"But for me … my dad was a professor, I'm a teacher. There's a difference there, right? Where it's about empowering and building processes that extend forward in the right direction. I mean, a good teacher sets their students up so that the next year, when they move on from them, they're able to build and move forward on that success."

It is impossible in the present to know what history will remember. In Justin Trudeau's case, his time as a maker of history — his tenure as prime minister — is not even done. And the final days, with the inauguration of a new United States president, could be eventful.

But the end of Trudeau's time as a resident of Rideau Cottage is now within sight. It is not too early to start considering what Canada's 23rd prime minister might leave behind. And there is much to consider.

His fall was almost as spectacular as his rise.

When Trudeau announced his candidacy for the Liberal leadership in October 2012, it was not obvious the Liberal Party of Canada — the most successful Canadian political party of the 20th century —would or should continue to exist. After a succession of poor election results, the party was down to 34 seats. Books were being written about why the Liberals were doomed and how the Conservative Party was positioned to dominate federal politics in the years ahead.

It also wasn't obvious that Trudeau deserved to be taken seriously. He was 41 years old, had never worked in business or government and had only just been elected to Parliament four years earlier. To critics, he was just the famous son of a former prime minister, getting by on his good looks and his last name. In some corners, doubts about his seriousness still linger more than a decade later.

But by October 2015, Trudeau was the next prime minister of Canada, carried to victory by "sunny ways" and the promise of something new, different and ambitious. As he basked in the glow of that moment, his approval rating neared 60 per cent. Almost immediately he became an international celebrity, bound ultimately for the cover of Rolling Stone.

"Is he the free world's best hope?" the magazine asked with typical understatement in 2017.

The initial excitement was never going to last. But even if the phenomenon of 2015 was unrepeatable, the man himself proved hard to dismiss. He will depart sometime between now and March 24 as the seventh-longest serving prime minister in history, having held office for something like nine years and four months — just shy of the tenures of Stephen Harper (nine years, nine months) and Jean Chrétien (10 years, one month).

Because of his natural advantages, personal gifts, stated ideals and big promises, it has always been tempting to assess Trudeau in terms of what should have or could have been — he never won another majority, he did not implement electoral reform, he did not save the free world. That frame of reference isn't entirely unfair, though Trudeau would hardly be the first prime minister — or the first human — fo fall somewhat short.

The next time academics come together to rank the prime ministers, his record will be put up against theirs. And though it might be hard for Trudeau, or any future prime minister, to crack the traditional top five (in some order: John A. Macdonald, Wilfrid Laurier, Mackenzie King, Lester B. Pearson, Pierre Trudeau), there might be an interesting discussion about where he slots in after that.