What turnout in Florida and Wisconsin says about the political moment

Democrats continued a trend of strong overperformance in off-cycle elections on Tuesday, making double-digit gains on the margin over their 2024 showing in both Florida congressional districts and statewide in Wisconsin. That trend has emerged at least in part because Democrats’ base is increasingly more likely to vote in such elections, but a CNN analysis shows that Tuesday’s results may reflect more than just a deeply engaged base.

Democrats continued a trend of strong overperformance in off-cycle elections on Tuesday, making double-digit gains on the margin over their 2024 showing in both Florida congressional districts and statewide in Wisconsin. That trend has emerged at least in part because Democrats’ base is increasingly more likely to vote in such elections, but a CNN analysis shows that Tuesday’s results may reflect more than just a deeply engaged base. Strong results in special elections do not necessarily lead to future electoral success. Democrats followed up a string of strong special election results early in Trump’s first term with resounding wins in the 2018 midterms, yet fell short in the 2024 general election despite overperforming in the special elections leading up to November. CNN examined the 12 House special elections between the June 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and November 2024 that involved a single Democratic and Republican candidate and found the average margin was 10.8 points more favorable toward the Democrat than in the 2022 midterm margin in the district. The Democratic candidates in both Florida races fared better than average on Tuesday, with Gay Valimont shrinking Republicans’ November margin in Florida’s 1st District by 17.3 points and Josh Weil tightening the GOP advantage by 19 points in the race to replace Mike Waltz in Florida’s 6th District. In Wisconsin, Democratic-backed Judge Susan Crawford outpaced Kamala Harris’ margin in the 2024 presidential election by nearly 11 points. Special election margins are notoriously volatile, and it is difficult to say what these results mean for the future. Democratic supporters hope they could foreshadow a strong showing in the 2026 midterms. Republicans might counter that the Democratic advantage in off-cycle elections is unlikely to hold in higher turnout contests such as a midterm. But there are some signals from Tuesday’s elections that bear watching.