What the Ismail Haniyeh assassination means for Gaza ceasefire talks

Hamas leader’s assassination may lead to regional escalation, and accelerate – or sabotage – a peace deal, analysts say.

The assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday risks the region spiralling into a wider conflict and could help or hurt prospects for a ceasefire deal to end Israel’s war on Gaza, several analysts told Al Jazeera.

Haniyeh was killed while attending the inauguration of reformist Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Iran’s capital, Tehran. Hamas has blamed the assassination on Israel, saying in a statement that Haniyeh was killed in “a treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran”. There was no immediate comment from Israel.

The attack occurred hours after Israel struck a building on Tuesday evening in Dahiya, a bustling neighbourhood in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, killing Fuad Shukr, a top commander from the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. The strike in Beirut came three days after an attack killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights which Israel has blamed on Hezbollah, although the group denies responsibility.

The killing of Haniyeh and Shukr will push Iran and Hezbollah to respond delicately to avoid a full-blown regional conflict. Diplomats from the United States and the European Union are reported to be in talks with their regional counterparts, trying to prevent the crisis from spiralling further. The EU’s efforts are believed to be focused on Iran, whose leaders have vowed “harsh revenge” against Israel, whom they have blamed for Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran.

But any retaliation – even if measured – raises the possibility of further escalation, regional analysts told Al Jazeera. Experts were unsure of how Hamas, which governs Gaza, will – or can – respond, given they have been entrenched already in a 10-month war with Israel. Diplomats from the United States and the European