What’s next for Catalonia after secessionists’ historic loss?

The secessionists are down, but not out, say analysts. And an amnesty law and complex government formation talks mean there’s uncertainty ahead.

Madrid, Spain — When Catalonia’s regional elections on May 12 saw its pro-independence parties lose their combined overall parliamentary majority for the first time in four decades, many proclaimed the result as constituting the end of an era.

Yet, more than two weeks later, the contours of what comes next for Catalonia are far from clear – and the passage of controversial amnesty laws for Catalan nationalists in Spain’s parliament on Thursday has also injected more drama into an already complicated political landscape, say analysts.

Back in early May, Spain’s beleaguered ruling party, the Socialists, appeared to have secured a major electoral triumph in Catalonia, their tally in the region going up from 33 to 42 deputies in a parliament of 135 seats.

Meanwhile, pro-secessionist formations, including the centre-right, hardliners Junts+, who took 33 seats; and the previous Catalan rulers, the more moderate pro-independence ERC who won just 20 seats; finished well behind. That performance led to the resignation of ERC leader Pere Aragones.

Analysts believe that the dramatic dent in the secessionist parties’ support likely represents the electoral finish line for the “procés”. That’s a term (meaning process) used by Catalans to define the political turbulence that from 2012 onwards pivoted on widespread, but by no means universal, demands for a regional referendum on Catalan independence, which took place in 2017.