What does Patrick Brown's disqualification mean for the Conservative leadership race?
CBC
Strategists say Patrick Brown's disqualification from the Conservative leadership race gives a leg-up to Pierre Poilievre — but Jean Charest may still have a chance.
The Conservative Party has ejected Brown from the race, citing allegations that he broke financing rules. Brown denies those allegations and his campaign says it's appealing the decision.
If the disqualification stands, Poilievre will have a clear shot at the Conservative leadership, said Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke.
"I think his odds of winning have gone from 98 per cent to 100," Teneycke, a partner at Rubicon Strategy, told host Vassy Kapelos on CBC's Power & Politics.
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Teneycke pointed to the Poilievre campaign's claim that it has signed up more than 300,000 of the 675,000 members the party says will be eligible to vote.
The party says the preliminary members list it released to the campaigns last week indicates roughly 675,000 members are now eligible to vote for the next Conservative leader.
"It kind of puts the race very heavily in [Poilievre's] favour in terms of the odds," Teneycke said.
Conservative strategist Shakir Chambers, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies, said that while Brown's disqualification gives Poilievre an easier path to victory, Charest could prevail if he courts Brown's supporters.
Brown has said he has recruited 150,000 new members to the party. Chambers said those votes could put Charest over the top.
"It does create a path for [Charest] to boost his camp, boost his memberships. And if he can get to the second, third ballot, he has a much better chance of winning," he said.
But Éric Grenier, author and publisher at The Writ, said that scenario likely will depend on how many of Brown's supporters still vote.
"Not all of those people are just going to go home and not vote because their candidate was disqualified. A lot of them will still end up voting," Grenier told Kapelos.
"Some of them will go to Jean Charest, but in all likelihood the 150,000 people that Patrick Brown signed up are going to vote in smaller numbers than the people who are signed up by other campaigns."