Week 2 of the Iran crisis: Diplomatic off-ramp is narrowing but not closed (yet)

As we approach Day 10 of the Israel-Iran crisis, the focus is on whether diplomacy can succeed and, if not, whether President Donald Trump will make the decision to use US military force to destroy what’s left of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure — particularly the deeply buried enrichment facility known as Fordow.

As we approach Day 10 of the Israel-Iran crisis, the focus is on whether diplomacy can succeed and, if not, whether President Donald Trump will make the decision to use US military force to destroy what’s left of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure — particularly the deeply buried enrichment facility known as Fordow. The situation as of Saturday, two days after Trump gave two weeks to test diplomacy, appeared to have reached a steady state. This includes Israel’s control of Iranian skies and striking targets at will, as well as Iran still being able to launch missile barrages albeit in smaller numbers at Israel. Militarily, this equation ultimately favors Israel, whose position is likely strengthening further this week. But that is a tactical equation and does not lead to a clear strategic endgame, particularly with respect to Iran’s nuclear program. So where is this crisis headed? I see four possible scenarios: This remains the preferred outcome. But after this week’s talks in Geneva between Iran and European allies, it’s not trending well. Those talks went nowhere. Iran held to its positions from before the crisis. The US was not present. And the entire backdrop — the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva, where the Iran nuclear deal was negotiated 10 years ago — was reminiscent of another era. There may be more direct engagements ongoing with United States and Iran (likely through Qataris and Omanis) but short of that, the diplomatic track has no real traction. This is unfortunate, as it’s the best way to end the crisis — and all Iran needs to do is signal to Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, that it is prepared to agree to the proposal he presented to Iran about six weeks ago. That proposal is reportedly a balanced one, resulting in Iran giving up its enrichment program but over time and as part of an international consortium to supply nuclear fuel for a peaceful and monitored civilian-nuclear program.