US intelligence suggests Sinwar believes Hamas has upper hand in negotiations with Israel, officials say

American Intelligence officials believe that Yahya Sinwar, the powerful leader of Hamas in Gaza who is thought to be the group’s key decisionmaker on any potential ceasefire deal, likely believes the group can survive Israel’s attempt to destroy it and feels confident it is well-positioned to approach negotiations from a place of strength, according to US officials familiar with recent assessments.

American intelligence officials believe that Yahya Sinwar, the powerful leader of Hamas in Gaza who is thought to be the group’s key decision-maker on any potential ceasefire deal, likely believes the group can survive Israel’s attempt to destroy it and feels confident it is well-positioned to approach negotiations from a place of strength, according to US officials familiar with recent assessments. The goal for Hamas is to survive, these sources say — that would be victory for the group. Sinwar likely believes Hamas can hold out while Israel’s global standing deteriorates as the war in Gaza, which has killed thousands of civilians, continues. A senior Biden administration official put it bluntly: “He believes he’s winning. For US negotiators pursuing a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel, it’s a discouraging assessment. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the families of American hostages being held in Gaza in a meeting in Tel Aviv on Tuesday morning that the fate of the latest proposal rests with Sinwar. While the US is pressuring those who have sway over Hamas to push the group to accept the deal, Blinken on Tuesday made it clear that the US believes that Sinwar is the ultimate decision-maker. “I think there are those who have influenced, but influence is one thing, actually getting a decision made is the is another thing. I don’t think anyone other than the Hamas leadership in Gaza are actually the ones who can make decisions,” Blinken said, adding: “That is what we are waiting on.”