Unpacking the Dubai climate meeting Premium

At the top of the COP28 agenda is the first Global Stocktake, a key part of the Paris Agreement machinery

As December draws near, so does the volume and intensity of global conversation around climate change negotiations. In early December, the 28th annual Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change will take place in Dubai.

While climate change diplomacy occurs in multiple fora including G20 m67557084.eetings, UN summits, and bilateral fora, the COP remains the central place where the machinery of global climate governance gets built. Because all countries, not only the powerful, have a voice at COPs, questions of equity and vulnerability are more likely to be placed on the table.

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In what has become a disturbingly familiar pattern, 2023 has seen devastating weather events: extreme heat in North Africa and Europe, wildfires in Canada and Hawaii, floods in India and Libya, and drought in the Horn of Africa. By September, scientists were expressing astonishment at how much land and ocean temperatures increases, and Antarctic sea ice decrease, have deviated from past records (likely exacerbated by an El Niño effect). It is likely that 2023 will be the warmest year on record.

But long-standing disagreements over what is a fair and equitable approach to addressing climate change, and who will pay, remain on the boil. To make matters worse, the geopolitical context is not favourable for enhanced cooperation. The U.S. and China have only recently tried to put the brakes on a deteriorating relationship and the Ukraine war and the horrific situation in Gaza have polarised public opinion and countries.

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Diplomats at the COP are tasked, then, with addressing an ever-more urgent problem under challenging conditions for global cooperation. And COPs are an unwieldy instrument with which to manufacture cooperation; they result in a torrent of words that are intended, but often fail, to unleash concrete actions. What can we expect from Dubai’s COP?