Ukraine's mineral riches could bankroll its postwar future. But what does Trump's deal really mean?

The giant excavator working in the quarry near the central Ukrainian town of Zhytomyr rarely stops scooping, removing earth and precious titanium ore 24 hours a day. 

"Ukraine possesses approximately 20 per cent of the world's titanium reserves," operations manager Dmytro Holik told CBC News, as the noise of the excavator blared in the distance. 

"I am very interested that Ukraine can become a global or European titanium hub."

On that point, Holik and U.S. President Donald Trump would appear to share common ground.

After weeks of painful — and often public — negotiations between American and Ukrainian officials, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to arrive in Washington on Friday to formally sign a natural resources pact with Trump.

Yet the Ukrainian leader is sounding rather unclear about what exactly he and Trump have agreed to. 

"This deal could be a great success, or it could pass quietly," Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv on Wednesday. "And the big success depends on our conversation with President Trump."

The basic outline of the deal calls for Ukraine to put money from future natural resources projects in Ukraine into an investment fund that both the U.S. and Ukraine would control. In return, Zelenskyy wants Trump to offer his country security guarantees after the war with Russia ends.

But Trump appears to have other ideas. He told reporters in the Oval Office this week that he's not going to offer any guarantees — even as he touted the financial benefits of the minerals framework.

"We've been able to make a deal where we're going to get our money back," Trump said, referring to the $120 billion US of military and financial aid that the Biden administration provided Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

As Zelensky has stressed, the congressional allocation for Ukraine was not, in fact, a loan.

The titanium facility in Zhytomyr is operated by Ukrainian conglomerate Group DF and has been in operation since 2011. While a lot of the world's titanium is used in steel making, the shimmering grey ore processed here is destined for other end products — electronics, engineering and as a whitener for paper making.

Titanium's strength and density, along with its light weight, makes it extremely valuable. The element is on the U.S. list of minerals considered critical to its economy.

Ukraine has had a titanium industry since Soviet times, but Holik says it has struggled with a lack of investment and an unstable political situation.