Ukraine’s military gains threaten Putin’s propaganda grip: ‘The bubble is bursting’

Criticism of the war is emerging in Russia despite a crackdown on dissent, putting Vladimir Putin in a tough spot as he considers his next moves, experts say.

Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive has produced major territorial gains and forced Russian troops to retreat — leading to some discontent within Russia itself that threatens the propaganda bubble Vladimir Putin has created.

Despite a crackdown on dissent against the war, criticism of Putin’s “special military operation” has emerged on Russian state television and in public, which experts say has put the Russian leader in a tough position as he tries to figure out his next moves.

“The bubble is bursting,” said Balkan Devlen, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and an adjunct research professor of international affairs at Carlton University.

“This idea that in the long term, Russia is on track to win this easily and that Ukraine might resist but are ultimately not capable of recapturing territory … that’s now falling apart. And so far, the Kremlin has failed to find a cohesive narrative to explain this to the Russian people.”

Over the past week, Ukrainian forces have reclaimed over 9,000 square kilometres of territory once held by Russia, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which has been closely tracking the conflict since it began in February. That’s more territory than Russia had claimed since April, the think tank said.

The counteroffensive has borne the most fruit in the northeastern Kharkiv region — which has been almost completely liberated by Ukraine — but is also driving the Russians back in the southern province of Kherson, where Kyiv hopes to retake control of ports along the Black Sea. Reports have emerged of Russian soldiers surrendering and even fleeing their positions.

It is not yet clear if the Ukrainian blitz could signal a turning point in the nearly seven-month war. Western allies have been wary of declaring a premature victory, even as U.S. officials declare the Russians “are in trouble.”

But seeds of doubt are taking root in Russia and among even its staunchest allies. Ramzan Kadyrov, the Moscow-backed leader of the Russian region of Chechnya, publicly criticized the Russian Defense Ministry for what he called “mistakes” that allowed the Russian losses.