U.S. presidential historian predicts results of November elections. Here's who he says will win
CTV
An American presidential historian is predicting a Kamala Harris presidency as the outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections in November.
An American presidential historian predicts a Kamala Harris presidency as the outcome of the U.S. November elections.
In an interview with CTV News Channel on Tuesday, Allan Lichtman forecast that Kamala Harris will become the first female president, the second of African descent and the first of South Asian descent.
Lichtman is known for his accurate election predictions. He has correctly forecast the winner of nearly every presidential race since 1984, with the exception of one: Republican George W. Bush versus Democrat Al Gore in 2000.
Lichtman disputes that he predicted right after claiming that "Florida messed up that election," and Al Gore should have won.
His method, the "13 keys to the White House," examines the strength and performance of the incumbent party rather than polls or pundits.
In an article published in the National Council for the Social Studies, Lichtman outlines the 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third part, short- and long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.
"If six or more of the keys turn against the White House Party, they are predicted losers, fewer than six negative keys, they are predictive winners," Lichtman explained to CTV News Channel.
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