U.S. Fed says it won’t cut rates until it has ‘greater confidence’ on inflation

The Fed emphasized inflation has remained high in recent months and said it doesn’t plan to cut rates until it has “greater confidence” price increases are slowing sustainably.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday emphasized that inflation has remained stubbornly high in recent months and said it doesn’t plan to cut interest rates until it has “greater confidence” that price increases are slowing sustainably to its two per cent target.

The Fed issued its decision in a statement after its latest meeting, at which it kept its key rate at a two-decade high of roughly 5.3%. Several hotter-than-expected reports on prices and economic growth have recently undercut the Fed’s belief that inflation was steadily easing. The combination of high interest rates and persistent inflation has also emerged as a potential threat to President Joe Biden’s re-election bid.

The Fed chair stressed, as he has before, that the central bank’s decision on when to cut rates will depend on the latest economic data.

The central bank’s latest message reflects an abrupt shift in its timetable on interest rates. As recently as their last meeting on March 20, the Fed’s policymakers had projected three rate reductions in 2024, likely starting in June. Rate cuts by the Fed would lead, over time, to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, including for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

But given the persistence of elevated inflation, financial markets now expect just one rate cut this year, in November, according to futures prices tracked by CME FedWatch.

The Fed’s more cautious outlook stems from three months of data that pointed to chronic inflation pressures and robust consumer spending. Inflation has cooled from a peak of 7.1%, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, to 2.7%, as supply chains have eased and the cost of some goods has actually declined.

Average prices, though, remain well above their pre-pandemic levels, and the costs of services ranging from apartment rents and health care to restaurant meals and auto insurance continue to surge. With the presidential election six months away, many Americans have expressed discontent with the economy, notably over the pace of price increases.

On Wednesday, the Fed also said it would slow the pace at which it’s unwinding one of its biggest COVID-era policies: Its purchase of several trillion dollars in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds, an effort to stabilize financial markets and keep longer-term rates low.