Trump brokers Iran ceasefire as experts say regime’s arsenal is shattered but threat remains

Iran backs down after striking a U.S. base in Qatar, but analysts warn it still retains the capacity for proxy warfare, drone attacks and regional disruption.

Efrat Lachter is an investigative reporter and war correspondent. Her work has taken her to 40 countries, including Ukraine, Russia, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, and Afghanistan. She is a recipient of the 2024 Knight-Wallace Fellowship for Journalism. Lachter can be followed on X @efratlachter.

Even as the ceasefire deal seems to be teetering, experts say Iran’s decision to step back reflects the heavy toll its military infrastructure has taken in the wake of coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, missile stockpiles and key production facilities.

"Iran cannot win this war," said Danny Orbach, a military historian at Hebrew University. "They’ve lost roughly 60% of their launchers. Even if they still have around 1,000 long-range missiles, without enough functioning launchers, they can’t deploy them effectively."