Trump assassination bid derails Biden’s counter-polarisation strategy Premium

Donald Trump assassination: Trump's survival of an assassination attempt reshapes his image, potentially impacting Biden's campaign strategy and the upcoming election.

As he survived an assassination attempt by a whisker in Pennsylvania on Saturday evening, Republican Donald J. Trump’s image underwent an abrupt makeover. From defending charges of being an instigator and an authoritarian-in-waiting, he will now be seen as a target of political violence.

Mr. Trump’s defiant response in the face of death with his fist raised against the backdrop of an American flag could blunt his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s strategy of a counter polarisation, and reinforce his messianic claims. The bid on Mr. Trump’s life could derail the wobbly script that Mr. Biden struggled to put together after his meltdown in the presidential debate on June 27.

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Mr. Trump is seen as a divisive figure of U.S. politics, but Mr. Biden’s re-election bid is also premised on polarisation. With the Democrat base itself conflicted over his politics, Mr. Biden has raised the decibel on rhetoric on domestic and international questions to unify his party. All that adds up to a very elementary claim that Mr. Trump would be worse.

On two polarising domestic questions that can unite the progressives, Mr. Biden has raised the stakes since the debate — gun control and abortion decontrol. The Biden campaign has sought to corner Mr. Trump on both questions. The battleground States that turned by narrow margins in 2016, and 2020, are being addressed on these two questions which would not only charge up the Democrat base but also potentially swing women voters from the Republican side too. Against the backdrop of his accelerating gaffe train, Mr. Biden amplified his messaging on these two questions, contrasting himself with Mr. Trump in stark terms.

But this has not stopped the chatter about his fitness to run for another term. In fact, it is growing into a clamour, being repeated by Democrat seniors and American strategists across the political divide. Mr. Biden has sought to talk up the Russia-China axis in recent weeks — though he mistook Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for ‘President Putin’.

Mr. Trump’s first term had significantly disrupted what former President Barack Obama had described as ‘Washington Playbook,’ — the standard, usually militarised response to most global events. By confronting China and appearing friendly to Russia, Mr. Trump’s first term had disrupted this playbook.