Trudeau's future is tied to the vote of a rich Toronto neighbourhood

The streets of Toronto’s Forest Hill neighbourhood are lined with arching maple trees and multimillion-dollar homes, a plummy refuge for some of Canada’s wealthiest families and top business leaders. Now it’s also a red-hot political battleground in the fight to control the country’s highest office.

On Monday, residents of this part of Toronto will vote in a closely watched special election for a vacant seat in the House of Commons. For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has held power since 2015 by consistently winning big in Canada’s largest city, the stakes are high. A loss would dramatically raise the pressure on the embattled leader to quit ahead of a national election expected next year. 

Trudeau is facing a crisis of confidence in his ninth year in office. Polling shows he’s fallen out of favour while his main opposition, the Conservative Party, is surging. That puts unexpected seats in play, including this one, known as Toronto-St. Paul’s. Voters here have chosen the Liberal Party in every election since 1993, but pollsters say the Tories are within striking distance this time.

It’s a battle, in miniature, over the fault lines and forces that have stirred unrest across the country. Canada’s economy is growing at a sluggish pace. Housing is unaffordable to many, and elevated interest rates are still frustrating borrowers and aspiring homebuyers.