Traders boost bets on Canada rate cuts in 2024 on weak outlook
BNN Bloomberg
Markets are coming around to the idea that the Bank of Canada will be forced to start cutting rates by late next year, shifting their bets a day after Governor Tiff Macklem and his officials downgraded the growth outlook.
Overnight swap markets are pricing in nearly two 25-basis-point cuts by December 2024, according to data tracked by Bloomberg, a change that follows policymakers’ rate decision and monetary policy report on Wednesday. The central bank held its overnight rate at 5 per cent while forecasting slow growth and a higher near-term level of inflation.
“I think it makes sense for markets to be pricing cuts by the end of next year given the evident slowdown in economic growth,” Andrew Kelvin, head of Canadian and global rate strategy for Toronto-Dominion Bank, said by email. “With high rates expected to continue to eat into growth through much of 2024, we do expect there will be enough slack in the economy for the bank to look at rate cuts.”
Global bonds rallied Thursday as the European Central Bank paused its hiking cycle for the first time in more than a year, and measures of underlying inflation cooled a bit more than expected in the U.S. — signs that the “higher for longer” sentiment on rates may have peaked.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is promising to release a new auto pact that he says will remove the GST on all Canadian-made automobiles and eliminate tariffs for the sale of Canadian vehicles to the United States.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement on the war on Thursday, saying Iran should close the Strait of Hormuz and keep attacking its Gulf Arab neighbors as leverage. Khamenei also called on people in Gulf countries to “shut down” U.S. bases, saying promised U.S. protection is “nothing more than a lie.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement on the war on Thursday, saying Iran should close the Strait of Hormuz and keep attacking its Gulf Arab neighbors as leverage. Khamenei also called on people in Gulf countries to “shut down” U.S. bases, saying promised U.S. protection is “nothing more than a lie.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement on the war on Thursday, saying that the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz should be used and that Iran will keep attacking its Gulf Arab neighbors. Khamenei also called on Gulf countries to “shut down” U.S. bases, saying promised U.S. protection is “nothing more than a lie.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei says that the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz should be used and that Iran’s attacks on Gulf Arab neighbours will continue. His first statement since his appointment was read on state television Thursday by a news anchor.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is again heading overseas, this time to Norway to observe NATO Cold Response exercises as Canada deepens ties with Nordic countries.
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service says the threat level in Canada from Iran or its proxies has not changed since the war in Iran began nearly two weeks ago, while adding that threat-related activities are “likely to continue.”
Ottawa is letting an unnamed automaker import a higher quota of U.S.-made vehicles without tariffs because the company is selling and making more cars in Canada than first expected.
World shares tumbled on Monday, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index plunging more than 5%, after oil prices spiked at nearly $120 a barrel, casting a shadow over economies heavily dependent on imports of oil and gas from the Middle East.
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Sunday the date for three upcoming byelections.
The price of oil surged higher and showed no signs of halting its rapid climb a week after the U.S. and Israel launched major attacks on Iran that escalated into a war in the Middle East.
Scott Moe says Canada needs to separate its trade talks from its national security concerns when dealing with certain countries if it is serious about diversifying trading partners beyond the United States.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has landed in Japan on the final stop of a 10-day trip that also included Australia and India.