Thrikkakara byelection outcome will have political reverberations in Kerala

A thumping victory for the UDF in the Thrikkakara bypoll would reassert the supremacy of the new leadership. An upset would help Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan go full steam on the SilverLine rail project

The outcome of the fiercely-contested Thrikkakara byelection would have its political ramifications for both the United and Left fronts in the State.

A thumping victory for the United Democratic Front would reassert the supremacy of the new leadership combo of K. Sudhakaran-V. D. Satheesan in the State unit of the Congress party. An upset would help Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan to go full steam on the SilverLine rail corridor project, while claiming that the development plank has won the people’s mandate.

A mere win would not be enough for the Congress in its traditional stronghold as any major dip in the victory margin compared to the lead of 14,329 votes earned by the late P. T. Thomas in the Assembly election in 2021 would be defined as ‘cracks emerging in the wall’.

But the party camp along with its partners in the United Democratic Front would try their best to overcome such perceptions by launching a spirited campaign that the victory has proved that the Left juggernaut is stoppable in the State. The Congress would also use the win as a chance to quell the Left’s criticism that it has lost the trust of the minority communities.

A defeat for the Left may force the Communist Party of India (Marxist) to press the pause button on the SilverLine project at least for a while. The Left partners, especially the Communist Party of India may also demand a rethink on whether the mega infrastructure project should be implemented against the people’s wish.

An increase in its vote share would bring smiles on the face of the State leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party after its lacklustre performance in the 2021 Assembly election. They would portray it as an indicator of the growing acceptance among the voters even in a constituency like Thrikkakara, which had stood with the Congress since it came into existence in 2011. The newly-formed alliance of Twenty20 and Aam Aadmi Party would definitely claim its share of the pie, once the victory margin is above 15,000 votes.