Three months since the fall of Assad, is Syria headed towards stability or chaos? Explained Premium

Syria faces political turmoil post-Assad, with interim President navigating internal strife, international relations, and economic challenges.

The story so far: Syria has entered a three-month period of political and military uncertainty following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the interim President, has sought international legitimacy while navigating internal instability. His government reached a significant agreement with the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), integrating the group’s military and administrative structures into the Syrian state. Meanwhile, conflict persists in various regions, with Israel expanding its control in the Golan Heights under the pretext of counterterrorism. The country’s economy remains crippled, and Assad-era international sanctions continue to hinder reconstruction efforts.

Since the overthrow of the Mr. Assad’s regime, power has transitioned to an interim government led by Mr. al-Sharaa, formerly known under his now de guerre as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani and the political leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Until late 2024, HTS controlled the Idlib enclave, but a rapid offensive in November saw them and allied opposition groups advance to Damascus, leading to Assad’s flight to Russia. On December 6, 2024, the power in the country was handed over by the Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali to the opposition forces.

Despite its militant origins and jihadist history as the Syrian section of al-Qaeda, HTS has rebranded itself as a governing authority, pledging to respect minority rights. However, the new administration lacks full territorial control. Assad loyalists continue to operate in the coastal region of Latakia, while the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) operates in northeastern semi-independent Rojava region. Reports of clashes between the Syrian security forces and pro-Assad militias have dominated recent headlines.

Although the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) largely disintegrated after Assad’s departure, loyalist cells continue to resist in various pockets, particularly in Latakia, a stronghold of the Alawite minority from which the Assad family hails.

The situation is further complicated by ongoing hostilities in the northeast, where the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continues shelling SDF positions as part of Ankara’s broader strategy to curb Kurdish influence.

Also read: The return of violence in Syria

Additionally, Israel has intensified military operations, launching over 400 airstrikes in December 2024, targeting military facilities, airports, warships and infrastructure. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) subsequently advanced beyond the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) buffer zone in the Golan Heights. The invasion of the UNDOF zone, which was established in 1974 following the end of Yom Kippur War of 1973, has been condemned by the UN as a violation of international law. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the operation as a preventive measure against “terrorist threats” and demanded that the new Syrian government demilitarize the region south of Damascus.