There's a good chance we'll miss our climate goals. So what's the point in setting them?

Our planet is changing. So is our journalism. This story is part of a CBC News initiative entitled Our Changing Planet to show and explain the effects of climate change and what is being done about it.

Right now, neither Canada nor the world appears to be on track to meet its climate targets or goals. So is all lost? Could we still hit the targets? What happens if we don't? And what's the point either way? Here's a closer look.

Article 2.1.a of the Paris Agreement names a key goal as: "Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change."

So far, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that the world has warmed 1.1 C.

Article 4.1 of the agreement also sets a longer-term goal to "achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century" — also described as net-zero emissions by 2050.

Not at the moment. 

A new study published in Science on Thursday used climate modelling to extrapolate the impact of countries' most recent climate pledges into the future. In doing so, it found a 34 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 2 C and a 1.5 per cent chance of keeping it below 1.5 C.

"There's no doubt that the current pledges are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement," said Matthew Gidden, senior scientific advisor for Climate Analytics, a Berlin-based think-tank focused on climate change science, risk, and mitigation, who co-authored the study.

However, the study found that's still a big improvement from 2015, when pledges had only an eight per cent chance of hitting 2 C and no chance at all of hitting 1.5 C.

Just before the COP26 climate conference began on Sunday in Glasgow, the UN Environment Programme reported that the new pledges put the world on track for a temperature increase of 2.7 C this century. If countries meet longer-term commitments to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, that could limit the temperature rise to 2.2 C.

However, it noted that countries' 2030 commitments "do not yet set G20 members (accounting for close to 80 per cent of GHG emissions) on a clear path towards net zero." And in fact, they "do not have policies in place to achieve even the NDCs, much less net zero," it said, referring to nationally determined contributions.

Some announcements at COP26 could bring the world closer, such as India's commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2070.  But Gidden said, "I personally do not expect COP26 to close the gap to 1.5 degrees."

In July, Canada submitted new targets to the UN promising to cut its greenhouse gas emissions 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. That's an upgrade from its 2015 commitment to reduce emissions 30 per cent.

The country also committed to reducing its emissions to net zero by 2050.