The U.S. wants Venezuelan oil. Does that undercut Canada's leverage in trade talks?

Just hours after the United States announced it had attacked oil-rich Venezuela and captured its president Nicolás Maduro, the wife of a top adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Canada on social media.

"The U.S. doesn't need anything from Canada," wrote Katie Miller, whose husband Stephen Miller is Trump's deputy chief of staff for policy and homeland security adviser. "Free trade is over."

It's a familiar refrain from those within Trump's orbit, and from the president himself. But the argument has taken on new meaning now that the United States could have access to Venezuela's staggeringly large reserves of heavy crude oil — similar to what's produced in Western Canada.

As Ottawa gears up to review the Canada-U.S.-Mexico-Agreement (CUSMA), do the developments in Venezuela undercut the Canadians' bargaining position? CBC's The House spoke to experts and former officials about the feasibility of ramping up Venezuelan oil production and the road ahead.

According to RJ Johnston, the director of energy and natural resources policy at the University of Calgary, Venezuela's oil sector and infrastructure have been deteriorating for more than a decade, which poses significant risks for U.S. oil companies who may want to re-enter the country.

"If the U.S. government really creates a partnership with the U.S. oil industry, and the taxpayers take a lot of risk and provide a lot of capital — that will change the calculus," Johnston said.

"Left with their own devices, I don't think those U.S. companies are that eager to go into Venezuela for large projects."

The U.S. government is pressing oil executives to return to Venezuela quickly, and has told those executives they'll need to invest significant capital to revive the country's damaged oil industry if they want compensation for assets that were expropriated by Venezuela two decades ago.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, for his part, said earlier this week he's not worried about the prospect of increased oil production from Venezuela because Canadian oil is cheaper, cleaner and lower-risk.

"We've got a competitive product and we've been diversifying our markets and that's one of the reasons why we signed the comprehensive [memorandum of understanding] with Alberta," Carney said in Paris on Tuesday.

Still, Canadian energy stocks took a hit after the U.S. incursion, as did Canadian heavy oil prices. That matters for Canada's economy, Johnston said, in particular in Alberta where falling prices mean lower royalty revenues for its budget.

Kate Kalutkiewicz, who served as senior director for international trade at the National Economic Council during Trump's first term, said she doesn't think the events in Venezuela change the Canada-U.S. energy dynamic in the near term.

"But it is a signal that President Trump is serious about his intent to reduce reliance on any singular trading partner for any particular good or commodity," Kalutkiewicz said.

On top of that, Trump prides himself on "being a really good negotiator and he is always thinking about how to create leverage in any negotiation," she said.