The U.S. has put military pressure on Venezuela for months. What's the endgame?
CBC
For months, U.S. pressure on Venezuela has included a buildup of military force in the region, threats of military action, along with strikes on alleged drug boats off its coast.
Yet it remains ambiguous and unclear as to what, exactly, the Trump administration’s strategy is for Venezuela, or its plans for fate of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, some analysts say.
“It's so frustrating to analyze this policy because we're not told what the goals are, we're not told if the ambiguity is intentional, strategic or not,” said Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“There's very few means of even determining who can answer those questions.”
And, more importantly, asked Freeman, “Does [Trump] even know what he wants at the end of this?”
Trump has, at different times, seemed to offer competing narratives, Freeman said. He has nixed the idea of regime change, given Maduro an ultimatum to leave the country, suggested a diplomatic solution might be worked out with him and then, later, referred to him as a narco-terrorist.
Freeman suggested these different takes on Maduro — and how to deal with him — reveals Trump's ambiguity about the Venezuelan president and his ultimate fate.
Although the end goal seems to be Maduro eventually leaving the country, it's been unclear how exactly the U.S intends to facilitate this, some observers say.
"The messaging has been very mixed," said Daniel Batlle, an adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute whose work focuses on Latin America and the Caribbean. "I think there's been room to doubt what types of pressure the U.S. is willing to use."
Some in the administration — chief among them U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — who see Venezuela primarily through the prism of regime change, said Geoff Ramsey, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
But there are others who seek a more diplomatic solution and an opportunity to advance U.S energy, migration and broader geopolitical interests there, he said.
"It's difficult to talk about a single objective in Venezuela because I think there's different factions in the administration that have different and occasionally competing objectives," Ramsey said.
The ambiguity, if unintentional, suggests a lack of shared vision and co-ordination among this administration, he said.
If it is intentional, it's perhaps a way to destabilize Maduro into not knowing what the U.S. wants, and "scare him enough until he leaves or does whatever" the U.S says, Freeman said.
