The (same) road ahead for Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan Premium

Nawaz Sharif, ousted as PM thrice previously, returns to Pakistan for his fourth attempt. He has a new Army chief, Asim Munir, to deal with. His return was marked by a VIP-style arrival and bail in several cases. The Army establishment believes he is the horse to back in the forthcoming elections.

Three names have haunted Nawaz Sharif in his political career – Abdul Waheed Kakar, Pervez Musharraf and Qamar Javed Bajwa. All three former Army chiefs in Pakistan sent Mr. Sharif packing as Prime Minister on three different occasions, using three differing routes.

And, now, after remaining in “medical exile” since 2019, the former Prime Minister is back again in Pakistan in what will be his fourth attempt to take power. This time he has a new Chief of the Army Staff to tango with – Asim Munir.

Mr. Sharif’s VIP-style arrival and instant bail from the courts in a host of cases goes to show that the Army establishment, after ensuring the ouster of Imran Khan as Prime Minister earlier this year, believes that the PML-N leader is the horse to back in the forthcoming elections.

After landing in Pakistan on October 21, and addressing a well-attended rally at the Minar-e-Pakistan, Mr. Sharif’s political fortunes will be closely watched. For better or for worse, he is the crowd puller for the PML-N – younger brother and former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has little of the charisma his older brother possesses.

As a country, Pakistan is ravaged by rampant inflation, an ever-weakening rupee, sky-rocketing fuel and gas prices, commitments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and an absolute inability to expand the tax base in the country.

It’s likely that one of the “conditions” imposed by Mr. Sharif to return to Pakistan is that his political rival Imran Khan be jailed and prosecuted. After all, it was Mr. Khan, who, in cahoots with then Army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa and a pliant Supreme Court, ensured the conviction and disqualification of Mr. Sharif in 2017.

It was a subdued Nawaz Sharif who addressed his supporters at the Minar-i-Pakistan, stating up front that he would not be seeking revenge against those who plotted his ouster through the courts in 2017. In the past, speaking from London, Mr. Sharif fired a salvo at Gen. Bajwa and then ISI chief Faiz Hamid, seeking action against them for their role in his ouster.