The number that moves markets every month just got a new formula. Here's what changed.
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The BLS updated its birth-death model in January. Economists say the change should improve accuracy and reduce large revisions to jobs data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently changed how it analyzes raw data in its monthly jobs report, updating a formula known as the "birth-death model" starting in January.
The birth-death model is designed to estimate jobs created by new businesses — and jobs lost when companies close — before those changes show up in official records.
"In order to get the data out quickly, they make assumptions about the pace at which new businesses are being formed, births, and new businesses that are actually failing, deaths," Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG U.S., said.
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Because new job gains and losses aren't immediately measured, the monthly report relies on estimates — and that's why the government makes revisions months after the numbers are originally reported.
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