The illusion of change in Pakistan

Pakistan's recent election results show that despite challenges, the PTI-backed candidates have gained the most seats, but the Establishment will still hold power.

The story so far: Pakistan’s recent election was considered a crucial one that would lead to a stable government with a clear mandate, end political instability, and start a process of political healing at the national level, especially in Punjab. The Establishment (the military-dominated deep state) expected the elections would end the Imran revolt and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) experiment. People expected the election process, polling and the final announcement to be free, fair and transparent. The 2024 elections were anything but the above.

According to the results of the National Assembly, the PTI-backed independent candidates have won 93 seats, followed by the Pakistan Muslim League (PML)-N (75), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) (54), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)-P (17) and the rest by smaller parties and independents. The PML-N, PPP and MQM-P may gain a few more reserved seats (60 for women and 10 for minorities) depending on the seats they have won. Unfortunately for the PTI, it would not get that share, as its candidates contested as independents. What do the above numbers mean for the Parliament and national politics?

The first key takeaway from the elections is that the vote belongs to the PTI and Mr. Khan, even though the party did not have a level playing field. Mr. Khan has been arrested and charged with numerous cases and just before the elections, two court verdicts barred him from contesting in elections. The Establishment, pursuing methods to discipline Mr.Khan for the May 9 riots in 2023, forced most of the second-rung PTI leaders to leave the party. In Punjab, Jahangir Tareen launched the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) to dent the PTI’s presence in Pakistan’s largest province. Similarly, in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) region, Pervez Khattak, another confidant of Mr. Khan and PTI’s former defence minister, formed a faction. In a final blow, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) debarred the PTI from contesting as a party (on the pretext of the party’s failure to hold intra-party elections), and removed the “bat” symbol. With most of his trusted lieutenants leaving, multiple cases charged against him, and he himself incarcerated, it was an arduous task for Mr. Khan to find candidates to contest, keep up morale and ask his cadres to vote.

Despite all the above odds, the PTI-backed candidates won 93 seats for the National Assembly, 18 more than the PML-N. The PTI has secured over half of these seats from Punjab (around 50), supposedly the PML-N’s home ground. In KP also, the PTI has swept, with other political parties securing seats in single digits. Though the PTI may not form the government, the 2024 election clearly belongs to Mr. Khan and the party.

The election results should see the Establishment’s best-laid plans crashing. The mandate is clearly against what it wanted. Many in Pakistan consider the pro-Imran vote as that against the Establishment. The Establishment would have wanted the PML-N to win, especially in Punjab, and expected its pre-election political engineering to dent the widespread support for Mr. Khan and the PTI. However, both these things have not happened.

This brings us to the second factor of these elections — that the Establishment will still call the shots. Ironically, it should still be happy that the PML-N has no absolute majority and has to work on a coalition to form the government in Islamabad and Lahore. An element of political instability will work in the Establishment’s favour. Whether the vote is what it wanted, or against its plan, the Establishment will continue its political engineering. And political parties will fall in line; those who refuse, will face the wall and the jails, as Mr. Khan’s case shows us.

The third aspect of the elections is the Nawaz factor, or rather the lack of it. Nawaz Sharif came back to Pakistan on the Establishment’s approval. The plan was that Mr. Sharif’s return would increase the PML-N’s chances and dent PTI’s, especially in Punjab. However, the return of Mr. Sharif has not catapulted the PML-N back into the driver’s seat — either at the national level or in Punjab. Except for a few seats in Balochistan and KP, most of the seats won by the PML-N come from Punjab. Even in Punjab, the PTI has won almost equal seats for the national and provincial assemblies. The PML-N will be unable to form a government in Punjab without the others’ support. At the national level, discounting the reserved seats, the PML-N had won only ten more seats in 2024, vis-à-vis the 2018 elections.