The ICC wants Putin arrested. What happens now?

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Russia's president over the invasion of Ukraine, but few in Moscow or beyond expect Vladimir Putin to be led away in handcuffs anytime soon. 

The warrant issued on Friday relates to Putin's alleged involvement in the deportation of thousands of children from Ukraine to Russia. Another was issued for Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Russia's commissioner for children's rights.

News of the warrants brought cheers from Ukraine and derision from Moscow. Russia is not among the 123 countries that have signed on to the ICC, making such warrants "null and void" within its borders, said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

But if Putin were to set foot in any of those other countries, they'd have to arrest him, said Payam Akhavan, a senior fellow at the University of Toronto's Massey College and an adviser on genocide to the ICC prosecutor. He'd then be sent to The Hague for trial. 

That might sound like a long shot, but stranger things have happened. The idea that former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic would face international justice — in front of a United Nations tribunal — for war crimes once seemed unlikely, said Akhavan, but eventually "that came to pass." 

"Those who are in power today may not be in power tomorrow," Akhavan told CBC News. 

So what does the warrant mean for the leader of the world's largest country?

Canada is among the countries to have ratified the ICC's foundational Rome Statute. Many others have not, including key members of the UN Security Council — the U.S., China and Russia — and major G20 nations such as India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Turkey.

Most of the countries in Europe and South America have signed on, as have Australia, New Zealand, Japan and much of Africa. 

The ICC has jurisdiction over four types of crimes: genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and crimes of aggression. 

However, with no armed body to enforce its warrants, the ICC has minimal power to arrest people and instead must rely on the security forces of member states.

Since its launch in 2002, the court has issued arrest warrants for three sitting world leaders: Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, Libya's Moammar Gadhafi and now Putin. None have stood trial. (Gadhafi died and al-Bashir remains at large.) 

Another Moscow resident, who gave his name only as Daniil, 20, scoffed at the warrant. 

"Putin! Nobody will arrest him. Rather, he will arrest everyone," he told Reuters.